Fundamental Analysis (FA): Đọc BCTC, business model, industry, management. Long-term focus (1-10 năm). Technical Analysis (TA): Đọc chart, indicators, volume. Short-term focus (days-months). Best: Kết hợp cả 2 — FA chọn mã, TA chọn timing.
Tham khảo /guide/cach-doc-bao-cao-tai-chinh. 3 reports: Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow. Key metrics: Revenue growth, Gross margin, ROE, Debt/Equity, FCF.
Moat = lợi thế cạnh tranh khó copy. 5 loại: 1) Brand (Vinamilk, Coca-Cola). 2) Network effect (Facebook, Uniswap). 3) Cost advantage (Walmart, HPG steel). 4) Switching cost (Banks, SAP). 5) Regulatory moat (Telecom, Banking license).
1) Threat of new entrants: Barrier to entry cao = tốt. 2) Bargaining power suppliers: Nhiều supplier = tốt. 3) Bargaining power buyers: Ít buyer power = tốt. 4) Threat of substitutes: Ít alternative = tốt. 5) Industry rivalry: Less competitive = better margins.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow): Forecast FCF 5-10 năm, discount về present = intrinsic value. Multiples: P/E vs industry, EV/EBITDA, P/B. Comparable analysis: So với peers cùng industry. Margin of safety: Buy at < 70% intrinsic value (Graham rule).
1) Track record: CEO trong job ≥ 5 năm. 2) Insider ownership: ≥ 5% là sign of alignment. 3) Capital allocation: Buyback at low price (smart) vs at high (dumb). 4) Communication: Annual letter chân thật (Buffett, Lynch style). 5) Past acquisitions: Wealth-destroying hay accretive?
1) ROE > 15% bền vững 10 năm. 2) Low Debt/Equity. 3) FCF tăng đều. 4) Moat rõ ràng. 5) Management trustworthy. 6) Business simple, dễ hiểu. 7) Trade tại price < 70% intrinsic value. 8) Hold "forever" — nếu fundamentals không xấu đi.
Top FA picks 2026: VCB (ROE 22%, lowest NPL, dominant moat banking). FPT (15-20% growth, AI/cloud moat, founder-led). VNM (defensive moat dairy, dividend yield 6-8%). HPG (cost leader steel, P/B 1.2 — value).