Symptom: Mua mã đang pump 20-50% vì sợ bỏ lỡ. Reality: Bạn mua đỉnh → reversal. Mua tại Bitcoin $100K (Dec 2024) vs $40K (Jan 2024) — sai biệt 60%. Fix: Trade plan written. Stick với entry rules. KHÔNG buy without plan.
Symptom: Loss đau hơn gain vui 2x (Kahneman research). → Trader hold loser quá lâu hy vọng phục hồi, sell winner quá sớm. Fix: Cut losses at -8% NO MATTER WHAT. Let winners run with trailing stop. 4:1 winner:loser ratio rule.
Symptom: "Tôi mua giá 100K, sẽ chỉ bán khi về 100K hoặc cao hơn". → Hold mã đã decline -50% in vain. Fix: Forget cost basis. Ask: "Nếu bây giờ chưa hold, có buy giá này không?" Nếu không → sell.
Symptom: Chỉ đọc news support thesis của mình. Ignore opposing views. Fix: Active devil's advocate. Đọc ít nhất 1 bear thesis cho mỗi mã hold. Charlie Munger: "I never allow myself an opinion without playing the other side".
Symptom: Last 3 trades thắng → confident, position size up. Last 3 lỗ → fear, dropdown size. Fix: Position size theo Kelly Criterion (/tools/kelly-criterion-calculator), KHÔNG theo emotion. Fixed % capital risk per trade.
Symptom: 5 trades thắng → "Tôi giỏi trader". Tăng leverage 3x → 1 trade lỗ wipe out 6 trades trước. Fix: Win streak = REDUCE size, không tăng. Track win rate honest. Avg trader overestimate skill 50%+ (Dunning-Kruger).
Symptom: "Đã hold 2 năm rồi, tiếc sell now". → Hold thêm 2 năm losing money. Fix: Time hold IRRELEVANT. Ask: "Liệu mã này sẽ outperform alternative trong next 1 năm?" Nếu không → switch.
1) Anything can happen. 2) You don't need to know what will happen next to make money. 3) There is a random distribution between wins and losses. 4) An edge is nothing more than indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5) Every moment in market is unique.
Morning: 1) Premarket review (15 min). 2) Set trade plan A/B/C. Evening: 1) Journal mỗi trade (lý do entry/exit). 2) Review mistakes. 3) Disconnect 8h+ — KHÔNG check phone. Weekend: 1) Read 1 trading book/2 tuần. 2) Backtest 1 strategy. 3) Plan tuần tới. Key: Discipline beats intelligence.